Forecasting the OECD Fixed Broadband Penetration with Genetic Programming method, diffusion models and macro-economic indicators

Konstantinos Ioannis Salpasaranis, Vasilios George Stylianakis

Abstract


This paper presents the implementation of a modified Genetic Programming (GP) method in forecasting fixed broadband telecommunications penetration percentage in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The specific GP method combines the use of known diffusion models for technological forecasting purposes, such as Logistic, Gompertz and Bass and the GP. The combination method produces both time dependant and causal models with high performance statistical indicators. Also, multiple approaches to forecasting can be implemented, mainly with no big datasets.


References


Konstantinos, S., Vasilios, S. (2011). A new empirical model for short-term forecasting of the broadband penetration: a short research in Greece. Modelling and Simulation in Engineering, 2011, 28. doi:10.1155/2011/798960

Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science, 15(5), 215–227

Holland, J.H., (1975). Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. University of Michigan Press

Jedrzejowicz, P., et al. (2011). Collective Intelligence of Genetic Programming for Macroeconomic Forecasting. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ICCCI 2011, Part II, LNCS 6923, pp. 445–454

Koza, J.R. (1992). Genetic programming: on the programming of computers by means of natural selection (Vol. 1). MIT press

Koza, J.R. (1994). Genetic programming for economic modeling. Statistics and Computing 4(2), 187–197

OECD, (2014). OECD Factbook 2014: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. OECD Publishing

OECD Broadband Portal. (2016). Historical time series, fixed and wireless broadband penetration (Dec. 2015). OECD Broadband Portal

Pena-López, I. (2015). OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015

Salpasaranis, K., Stylianakis, V. (2012). A hybrid genetic programming method in optimization and forecasting: a case study of the broadband penetration in OECD countries. Advances in Operations Research, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/904797

Salpasaranis, K., Stylianakis, V., Kotsopoulos, S. (2014). Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method: Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile Telecommunications Subscribers in OECD Countries. Advances in Operations Research, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/568478


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 IMAGE PROCESSING & COMMUNICATIONS